2023 guber: Obong Attah’s political miscalculation in retrospect
By Franklyn Isong
Last week, yours truly played host to a couple of friends who were on a condolence visit to my wife for the death of her beloved uncle, the immediate past Commissioner for Lands and Town Planning, Arc. Ime Okon Ekpo. May his soul find rest in Abraham’s bosom, Amen!
Our guests some of whom are members of Governor Udom Emmanuel’s cabinet while some are serving/past members of the Akwa Ibom State House of Assembly. These were separate visits.
In each of the visits, after delivering their condolences, our guests would systematically raise political conversations. My friends in government know my non-partisan and apolitical disposition, notwithstanding, still expect my contributions in political discussions. And, of course, I do not shy away from expressing my unbiased opinions.
Majorly, we conversed about the 2023 succession plan of the Governor, Mr. Udom Emmanuel. In summary, one could only deduced their fears that the Governor most likely risks suffering the fate of Obong Attah who could not have a successor because of betrayal and deceit he got from his foot soldiers, political structure, political allies and his party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
My government-friends, noted that the betrayal of Obong Attah was only possible because he did not name his successor early enough.
Some of these my friends who were relevant stakeholders in the Attah’s administration just as they are in the Udom Emmanuel’s administration, maintained that Attah left his followers, supporters and party structure blank on his succession plan while prosecuting his 2007 presidential ambition in Abuja and in the northern states.
Obong Attah had implicit confidence on his closest allies and had believed in whatsoever political information they fed him, not knowing they would betray him at the appropriate time.
It was barely 24 months to the end of Attah’s tenure, which was rather too late for Attah to realise, he made a political miscalculation by not naming his successor on time; and by relying on his closest allies and structure thus failing to give necessary instructions to the various layers of his party structure.
This costly mistake consumed his political fortune, as his structure in the PDP moved against his candidate, Dr. Udoma Bob Ekarika
in the 2006 PDP primaries; and in the 2007 general elections because, it was an open secret that Attah did not support the PDP’s candidate, Barr Godswill Obot Akpabio. Simply put, Arc. Obong Attah was the Architect of his own political Waterloo in 2007.
Barr Godswill Akpabio who benefited from the political miscalculations of Attah was a fast learner. He learned from Obong Attah’s undoing. He named his successor, Udom Emmanuel, on 31st July, 2013 whom he appointed, first, as the Secretary to State Government, 2 years to the end of his administration.
Akpabio was smart as a good student of history. He would not want to suffer the fate of his predecessor (Obong Attah). He made up his mind earlier enough and gave out the right instruction to every layer of his political structure and to all quarters that matters – home and in Diaspora, including Abuja.
Little wonder Akpabio’s preferred candidate, Udom Emmanuel, defeated 22 other aspirants of the PDP on the 8th December, 2014 PDP Governorship primaries in the State. And in January, 2015, the “G22 Aspirants of PDP” emerged to fight and upturn Udom’s victory, but no! Akpabio had foresaw it coming. He had his men everywhere in Abuja, PDP Wadatta Plaza and the Presidential Vila. Because he was well prepared for the battle and he succeeded.
Suffice it to note that Udom’s successes at the 2014 PDP primaries and 2015 general elections were the products of early preparation of Akpabio and his political structure in the PDP and beyond.
“For which of you, intending to build a tower, does not sit down first and count the cost, whether he has enough to finish it?” Luke 14:28.
Yours truly will not agree any less with my guests that Governor Emmanuel may risk the Obong Attah’s kind of fate in 2023. Why? Even the Governor himself knows that a lot of his aides and appointees have started betraying him.
TheMail Newspaper of 3rd March, 2021, reported that the Governor had during the swearing-in of the immediate past State Chairman of PDP, Obong Paul Ekpo and others as Chairman and members of the State Universal Basic Education Board (SUBEB), expressed disappointment over the high level of betrayal he got from the PDP structure ahead of the party’s primaries next year.
“So when you hear people going about taking oath for N20,000, we’ve preached this thing over and over again. It is the highest level of treachery and whoever is treacherous can never go unpunished. Whether you say Amen or not, whoever is treacherous can never go unpunished. Peter was treacherous he was punished. Check, everybody who had ever been treacherous can never go unpunished. We gave you something to keep, we come back, you say no, it is no more there for you. Who else gave you? We gave you. We could as well done it our own selves…” Mr Udom Emmanuel said as reported TheMail Newspaper.
My friends-in-government have argued that at the moment, the Governor has less than 24 months to end of his tenure, like Obong Attah had, and they advised him to ‘take the bull by the horn’ and name his ssuccessor, at least, before the end of the first quarter of 2021, in order to avoid the Obong Victor Attah’s political experience.
Howbeit, I am not a fan of political imposition. I am of the school of thought that there should be an open contest. I believe that all the aspirants should work out their salvation. I expect a free and fair party’s primaries. The Governor should exhibit an unqualified neutrality, even when, he has a preferred successor in the contest and let the masses decide who succeeds him in 2023.
~ Franklyn Isong is a public affairs commentator and conscience of the society.
